A lot has been said and written about Bush's latest immigration policies. But it is clear that they will have an enormous impact and immigration will remain a hot topic through the election.
Alas, Bush's crackdown is all politics and no principle. My colleague
Shikha Dalmia sliced and diced it in the LA Business Journal recently:
President Bush came into office promising to
fix the country's broken immigration laws that, he said, were
preventing willing American employers from hiring willing foreign
workers. Nothing could be further from this vision than the employer
crackdown that his Department of Homeland Security recently announced.
Why has the administration so totally reversed course?
It is not like it does not understand that the
"problem" of illegal immigration is purely a function of existing
immigration laws, not "evil doers." These laws don't exactly roll out
the welcome mat for high-skilled immigrants that California's Silicon
Valley badly needs. But they are downright hostile toward "unskilled"
workers who form the backbone of the agricultural, landscaping and
hotel industry in the Golden State and elsewhere.
On paper, there are two types of visas available
for unskilled workers: H-2A for campesinos, or farm workers, and H-2B
for other seasonal jobs. But thanks to copious red tape, these visas
rarely ever arrive on time for the job. Even worse, they are usually
good for less than a year and can only be renewed a few times. Once
they expire, workers have to return home because neither they, nor
their employers, can apply for a green card or permanent residency.
Such a dead-end process leaves workers no choice but to work illegally.
The White House tried to get Congress to pass
comprehensive immigration reform with a guest worker component to
create a way for future foreign workers to legally live and work in
this country – and also regularize the status of undocumented aliens
already in the country. But GOP nativists – aided by conservative talk
radio and some Democrats – killed the bill as "amnesty," insisting
instead on a tough, enforcement-only approach.
The Homeland Security Department's employer
crackdown effectively embraces their approach. In 30 days, the Social
Security Administration (SSA) will start sending letters to employers
alerting them to any discrepancy in the Social Security numbers their
employees are using and government records. Employers who discover that
employees have given them false numbers – something that undocumented
workers often do -- will be required to fire them within 90 days – or
face up to $10,000 in fines per employee. Repeat violations could bring
jail time.
Michael Chertoff, the Secretary of Homeland
Security and the architect of the crackdown, noted that the SSA expects
to send 140,000 of these "no-match" letters covering more than 8
million people. But how precisely any of this will enhance national
security, the core reason why his department exists, he has yet to
explain. Does he really believe that Al Qaeda operatives are holding
jobs illegally and will drop their plans to scurry for the border once
these letters start rolling in?
This crusade won't improve national security, but
it will disrupt the economy. To the extent that it succeeds in slowing
the tide of foreign immigrants, it will cause labor shortages and raise
prices of produce -- and other goods and services in
immigrant-dependent industries. California employers, especially
farmers, will be among the worst hit given that they employ 2.5 million
illegal immigrants – the highest of any state. Even before the
crackdown, California's farmers were projecting 30 percent crop losses
because intensified border patrolling had already shrunk the labor pool
this year. Dianne Feinstein, California's Democratic Senator, expects
the situation now to be nothing short of "catastrophic."
Curiously, Commerce Secretary Carlos Gutierrez,
who joined Chertoff in announcing the crackdown, doesn't deny any of
this. "We do not have the workers our economy needs to keep growing,"
he readily admits.
So why drive out the workers we have? Employer
sanctions have been on the books for years. Why enforce them if there
are no upsides for national security – only downsides for the economy?
One explanation is that the administration is
hoping that this campaign will prove to Congress how much the economy
depends on undocumented workers and force it to once again tackle
comprehensive immigration reform. However, it is highly doubtful that
the administration can genuinely believe that driving California
farmers out of business will convince a determined immigration foe like
Republican Rep. Tom Tancredo of Colorado to see the light.
The only plausible reason is that the
administration has not just abandoned rational immigration reform,
which would be understandable under the circumstances. It has actually
made a conscious decision to embrace its opposite to win back its lost
base before next year's elections. In short, its immigration policy now
is driven neither by conviction, nor the needs of the economy - but
naked political calculation, even if that involves targeting "willing
employers" and "willing foreign workers," the very victims of that
policy.
That is a new low.